Snowshagal · INVESTMENT NOTE
NO.06 · 2026.09.29
Snowshagal ReportRATES · CHUSEOK GAP
INVESTMENT NOTENO.062026.09.29
U.S. SEP 23-25 · KOREA SEP 28

Three Days of RatesOne Session

Three days of higher U.S. long yields, repriced into Korea Treasury Bonds on Sep 28

What drove the move · how it transmits to Korea · when the next market gap arrives · three checkpoints

9.239.249.25Weekend9.28 U.S.10Y +15 +7 −1 Not yet priced Three-day total +21bp Korea10Y KTB Close Chuseok holiday +14.7
Daily moves in the U.S. 10Y Treasury yield (Treasury closing curve, bp) · 10Y KTB move is Sep 23 to Sep 28 close · Bar heights are proportional to bp
U.S. 10Y · THREE HOLIDAY SESSIONS
+21bp
Sep 22 4.96% → Sep 25 5.17% · Treasury closing curve1
OF WHICH, REAL YIELD
+20bp
10Y TIPS · approx. 10Y breakeven +1bp2, 3
10Y KTB · SEP 28 SESSION
+14.7bp
4.539% · 3Y at 4.119%, highest since Nov 20224
OCTOBER MARKET HOLIDAYS LEFT
2days
Oct 5 substitute holiday · Oct 9 Hangul Day5

A market holiday does not stop repricing; it defers it · The breakeven proxy barely moved; real yields did · Historically, the main transmission channel into Korea has been policy expectations

Information cutoff · Sep 29, 2026, 08:00 KST · Includes the U.S. Sep 28 close · Excludes Korea’s Sep 29 session and subsequent data releases

snowshagal.com

AT A GLANCE

WHEN
U.S. Sep 23-25 · three sessions · Korea Sep 28 · one reopening session
HOW MUCH
U.S. 10Y +21bp · 10Y KTB +14.7bp · 3Y KTB +11.3bp
WHY
10Y TIPS +20bp · 5Y auction tailed 3.1bp · Oct hike odds: 64% on Sep 26 → 72.5% on Sep 28
MISREAD
Treasury buybacks are not yield defense; they are a liquidity-support tool
CHANNEL
Historically, the Policy-expectations channel · Foreign KTB futures flows are a secondary indicator
NEXT
Oct 2 U.S. payrolls → Oct 5 Korea market holiday → repriced Oct 6
PAGE 01THREE DAYS AND ONE SESSION
Three days, one session

Three U.S. sessions.
One Korean repricing.

U.S. Sep 22 → Sep 25 · Korea Sep 23 → Sep 28

Korea’s bond market closed after Sep 23. The U.S. then completed three sessions, on Sep 23, 24 and 25. The clean closing-price comparison is therefore U.S. Sep 22 close → Sep 25 close, versus Korea Sep 23 → Sep 283

Treasuries also trade through Asian and London hours, so part of the move may already have been under way by Korea’s Sep 23 close. The window above aligns official closing curves, not intraday timestamps.

Yield moves by maturity · Three U.S. sessions vs. one Korean sessionbp
U.S. TreasuriesSep 22 → Sep 25 close
2Y
+10
5Y
+15
7Y
+17
10Y
+21
30Y
+20
Korea Treasury BondsSep 23 → Sep 28 close
1Y
+5.9
3Y
+11.3
5Y
+12.5
10Y
+14.7
U.S. figures use Treasury closing curves. Korea uses reported Sep 28 closes and day-over-day moves. Maturity buckets are not forced to match across the two markets; bar lengths use the same bp scale.1, 4
Three sessions accumulated while Korea was closed. KTBs paid the bill in one reopening session.Do not read the ratio of the two moves as a transmission coefficient; Korea was also trading on other same-day inputs.
PAGE 02DECOMPOSING THE MOVE
Real-yield led

The move came from
real yields

Nominal +21bp = real +20bp + approx. 10Y breakeven +1bp

Of the 21bp nominal increase, 20bp came from the real yield; the breakeven proxy moved only 1bp. That decomposition uses the Treasury TIPS curves2, 3 · Hana Securities reached the same broad conclusion7

Decomposing the U.S. Treasury yield rise · Sep 22 → Sep 25bp · Snowshagal calculation from Treasury data
10Y4.96→5.17
Real +20
+21BEI +1
30Y5.29→5.49
Real +18
+20BEI +2
Real yield (TIPS)Breakeven proxy = nominal − real
Snowshagal calculation using Treasury nominal and real par closing curves. The breakeven is a proxy derived from the gap between the two curves and can include liquidity premia. Real yields also embed term premium and supply-demand effects, not policy expectations alone.1, 2, 3

Three signals that accompanied the yield rise

01

Growth and cost pressure

S&P Global’s flash U.S. Composite PMI rose from 56.0 in August to 58.4 in September, the fastest expansion since July 2021. Input costs rose at the steepest pace in four years. Chris Williamson of S&P Global said stronger pricing power was a concern for the inflation outlook8 · Stronger growth and cost pressure may have reinforced expectations for further tightening.

02

Policy path

October hike odds: below 10% a month earlier → 64% as of Sep 267, 9 · Fed Governor Michael Barr said on Sep 23 that inflation was not clearly moving back to target in a timely way and that, in his base case, further policy adjustments were likely to be needed10 · The key market repricing was toward a higher probability of another October hike.

03

Auction demand

The USD 70bn 5Y auction stopped 3.1bp above the when-issued yield · indirect bidders received a materially smaller-than-average allotment11

SEPTEMBER AUCTIONSHigh yieldTailBid-to-coverIndirect allotment
5Y · USD 70bn · Sep 235.033%3.1bp2.21x
avg. 2.33x		54.3%
avg. 65.2%
7Y · during holiday5.085%0.7bpnot statednot stated

Tail The 3.1bp tail was about five times the prior six-auction average of 0.6bp11 · 7Y auction figure cited from iM Securities.12

A higher real yield is an observation. Why it rose is a separate question.Strong activity and cost pressure may have lifted expectations for further tightening. Flat breakevens do not mean inflation concerns disappeared. The move cannot be cleanly split into policy expectations, term premium and supply-demand effects.
UPDATE · U.S. SEP 28 CLOSE
  1. U.S. 10Y: 5.17% → 5.24% (+7bp), its highest close since July 20071, 13
  2. 10Y TIPS also rose 7bp, from 2.83% to 2.90%, while the breakeven proxy stayed at 2.34% · The real-yield-led decomposition held for another session2, 3
  3. This time the 2Y rose more than the 10Y: 4.81% → 4.92% (+11bp) · CME FedWatch put the probability of an October hike at 72.5%1, 13
  4. Fed Governor Cook said on Sep 28 that AI investment and the pass-through from oil prices could keep inflation pressure elevated13 · Korea’s Sep 29 session falls beyond this note’s information cutoff
PAGE 03MISREADING THE BUYBACK
Not a Bessent put

Buybacks are not
yield defense tools

Treasury’s stated objective is liquidity support in the long end

In the Sep 24 buyback of 20Y-30Y residual maturities, holders offered about USD 10.5bn, the cap was USD 6bn, and Treasury accepted USD 4.08bn7, 9, 12 · Some sell-side research read the shortfall as evidence of limited willingness to stabilize yields - the limits of a so-called “Bessent put”7, 9

Sep 24 buyback · 20Y-30Y residual maturitiesUSD bn · par amount
Maximumper operation
6.0
Offers submittedpar amount offered into the operation
~10.5
Acceptedpar amount Treasury bought back
4.08
Hana, Eugene and iM Securities cite USD 10.46bn-10.47bn offered and USD 4.078bn accepted. The 68% of cap and roughly 39% acceptance rate are Snowshagal calculations.3, 7, 9, 12
PAGE 03 · TAKEAWAYS
  1. USD 6bn was a ceiling, not a target that had to be filled. Buying less can reflect price selection.
  2. The objective is long-end liquidity support, not defense of a particular yield level.
  3. On Oct 1, watch whether liquidity improves - bid-ask spreads and off-the-run relative value - more than the headline purchase amount.
PAGE 04HOW IT REACHES KOREA
The Transmission Channel

The main channel is
policy expectations

Historical comovement evidence · Future policy-rate expectations matter more than risk compensation

Bank of Korea Economic Research 2026-15 finds global inflation shocks to be the largest driver of Korea-U.S. long-rate comovement. External shocks transmit mainly through expectations for the future monetary-policy path rather than through risk compensation17

Two channels from a U.S. shock to long-term KTB yieldsConceptual diagram
U.S. shock inflation · policy · yields Long KTB yield 10Y Policy-expectations channel Expectations that the BOK path will move as well Risk-premium channel (term premium) Negative contribution in 3 of 4 shocks
Line thickness is illustrative. Channel direction follows BOK Economic Research 2026-15; this is not a decomposition of the latest holiday move.17

Korea’s curve steepened as the long end rose more

KTB 3s10s spread38.6→42.0bpSep 23 → Sep 28 · Sep 23 back-calculated from reported moves3
Foreign net purchases of KTBs · by residual maturityKRW tn · August vs. September through Sep 23
1Y-5Y
−0.09 → +1.55
5Y+
+3.87 → −0.16
of which 10Y+
+2.14 → −1.12
AugustSeptember (through 23rd)Center line = zero · right = net buying · left = net selling
iM Securities compilation by residual maturity at the time of trade. The 10Y+ bucket is included within 5Y+ and cannot be added separately. Full August vs. September cumulative through Sep 23. This tracks the maturity mix of new purchases, not the duration of total holdings.18
PAGE 05AHEAD OF THE NEXT GAP
Two More Market Gaps

October still has
two market holidays

U.S. payrolls again land just before a Korean market holiday

Korean markets are closed Monday, Oct 5 for the substitute National Foundation Day holiday and Friday, Oct 9 for Hangul Day5 · The U.S. September Employment Situation is due Friday, Oct 2 at 21:30 KST20 → Korea does not trade through the weekend and substitute holiday, so the first domestic repricing comes on Tuesday, Oct 6 · On Monday, Oct 12, the calendar flips: the U.S. bond market is closed while Korea trades normally21

09.30WED
August PCE · Q2 GDP third estimate · annual revisions21:30 KST · follow-up item from Investment Note NO.0522
10.01THU
Treasury buyback · 10Y-20Y residual maturitiesPurchase amount and liquidity indicators16
10.02FRI
U.S. September Employment Situation21:30 KST · consensus +100k payrolls · key test for October hike odds13, 20
CLOSED
10.05MON
Substitute National Foundation Day holidayPayrolls repricing deferred to Oct 65
CLOSED
10.09FRI
Hangul DayThree-day gap including the weekend5
CLOSED
10.12MON
U.S. bond market closed · Columbus DayKorea’s bond market trades normally19, 21
10.14WED
U.S. September CPI21:30 KST20
10.22THU
BOK Monetary Policy BoardKorea-side test of the policy-expectations channel23
10.27~28FOMC
October FOMC meetingNo SEP · rate decision24
PAGE 06COUNTERPOINTS AND CHECKS
Counterpoints · checkpoints

The counter-case
and what to watch

One view says the holiday spike overshot · another says the yield floor remains high
01

The mix of drivers differs from 2023

Daishin Securities argues that the relative mix of term premium, growth and monetary-policy expectations differs from October 2023. Against U.S. Q2 nominal growth of +6.5% as reported by Daishin and a long-run 4%-5% range for long yields, it views current levels as not inherently abnormal.25

02

The holiday yield spike may have overshot

Another view is that better data, oil and buybacks were not new information; forced selling and weaker new-money inflows amplified the move. At higher yields, the carry appeal of long-duration bonds has improved.9

03

September foreign outflows may be overstated

Most of the decline in foreign holdings reflects Sep 10 maturities. October does not carry the same KTB redemption burden, leaving room for the holdings data to rebound.18

04

On the other hand, the U.S. yield floor may stay high

Corporate bond issuance by five hyperscalers plus Nvidia equals roughly 52% of 10Y Treasury issuance on a 10Y-equivalent basis YTD 2026, using a Dallas Fed conversion methodology; this is not a measure of one-for-one substitution for Treasury demand. Fiscal deficits remain around 6% of GDP, while the currency-hedged U.S. 10Y yield for yen-based investors is about 2.00%, weakening the relative pull on some overseas buyers.26

Four things to monitor after the reopening

WATCH 01

Direction of October hike odds (72.5% as of Sep 28)

Whether expectations for another October hike persist after the Oct 2 employment report13 · iM Securities’ base case is private payrolls around +100k, unemployment at 4.1%, and the next Fed hike in December27 · Check the path beyond year-end separately in futures pricing7, 9

WATCH 02

Real yield vs. breakeven proxy

Whether real yields continue to lead. If the breakeven proxy starts widening, re-check inflation expectations and inflation risk compensation.2

WATCH 03

Oct 1 buyback and liquidity indicators

10Y-20Y residual maturities · More important than the purchase total is whether bid-ask spreads and off-the-run relative value improve.15, 16

WATCH 04

KTB 3s10s and foreign futures positioning

42.0bp on Sep 28 · Watch whether foreign net selling of KTB futures continues and compare positioning around the Oct 5 and Oct 9 holidays.3, 4

EASY TO MISS · QUARTER-END MONEY MARKETS
  • Ahead of quarter-end before the holiday, Korea’s 91-day CP yield rose about 10bp and the 91-day CD yield about 7bp, alongside pre-emptive outflows from money market funds12
  • The long-end selloff and quarter-end funding demand hit in the same week. Short-term rates therefore also matter through month-end.
CLOSING NOTE
A market holiday does not stop repricing.
It defers it.

The next deferred repricing arrives with the Oct 6 reopening.

This note reviews rate moves over a specific window. It is not a forecast for any asset and is not a trading recommendation. U.S. yields use Treasury closing curves: Sep 22 and Sep 25 for the holiday comparison, plus Sep 28 for the subsequent update; intraday levels may differ. Korean yields use reported Sep 28 closes and changes versus Sep 23, with Sep 23 levels back-calculated. The breakeven measure is an approximation calculated as nominal par yield minus real par yield. Foreign flows by maturity are compiled by iM Securities through Sep 23. October hike probabilities reflect market pricing on Sep 26 (64%) and Sep 28 (72.5%, CME FedWatch) and may change with subsequent data and market moves.

GLOSSARYQUICK DEFINITIONS
bear steepening
A curve move in which yields rise and longer maturities rise more than shorter maturities, steepening the slope.
real yields
An inflation-adjusted yield. In the U.S., TIPS yields are used as the market real-yield measure; they embed expected real short rates as well as term premium and supply-demand effects.
BEI
Nominal yield minus real yield. Used as a market-based proxy for expected inflation, though liquidity and other premia are also embedded.
Tail
The amount by which an auction’s stop-out yield exceeds the pre-auction when-issued yield. A larger tail generally signals weaker demand.
Indirect bids
Customer bids submitted through dealers or direct submitters. They include official institutions such as foreign central banks as well as domestic investors; a lower share alone does not prove foreign outflows.
Treasury buyback
Treasury repurchases outstanding government securities before maturity. The stated objective of the long-end operations discussed here is liquidity support.
KTB futures
Futures on Korea Treasury Bonds. Foreign net selling points in the same direction as higher yields, but hedging, roll activity and arbitrage can be mixed in, so it is not used as a standalone directional signal.
Policy-expectations channel
The transmission channel through which an external shock changes expectations for the domestic central bank’s future policy-rate path and thereby moves long-term yields.
Term premium
Extra compensation investors require to hold longer-maturity bonds; the core of the risk-premium channel.
SOURCES (27)

Information cutoff · Sep 29, 2026, 08:00 KST · Includes the U.S. Sep 28 close · Excludes Korea’s Sep 29 session and subsequent data releases

1. U.S. Department of the Treasury · Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates, September 2026 · Sep 22: 2Y 4.71% · 5Y 4.83% · 7Y 4.89% · 10Y 4.96% · 30Y 5.29% → Sep 23: 10Y 5.11% · Sep 24: 10Y 5.18% · Sep 25: 2Y 4.81% · 5Y 4.98% · 7Y 5.06% · 10Y 5.17% · 30Y 5.49% → Sep 28: 2Y 4.92% · 10Y 5.24% · 30Y 5.56% · Closing-curve figures, not intraday values.
2. U.S. Department of the Treasury · Daily Treasury Par Real Yield Curve Rates, September 2026 · 10Y TIPS real yield: Sep 22 2.63% → Sep 23 2.76% → Sep 24 2.85% → Sep 25 2.83% → Sep 28 2.90% · 30Y real yield: Sep 22 3.04% → Sep 25 3.22%.
3. Snowshagal calculation · Approx. U.S. 10Y breakeven = nominal 10Y par yield − TIPS 10Y real par yield: Sep 22, 4.96−2.63=2.33%; Sep 25, 5.17−2.83=2.34%, or +1bp. Of the +21bp nominal move, +20bp came from the real yield. Sep 23 Korean yields are back-calculated from Sep 28 closes minus reported changes (3Y: 4.119−0.113=4.006%; 10Y: 4.539−0.147=4.392%). KTB 3s10s: 38.6bp on Sep 23 → 42.0bp on Sep 28. Sep 22 is used as the U.S. base date to align official U.S. closes finalized after Korea’s Sep 23 close (Sep 23, 24 and 25). Because cash Treasuries trade in Asian and London hours and were already trading at Korea’s Sep 23 15:30 close (02:30 ET), not all of the three-session move occurred after Korea closed. Buyback acceptance: 4.078÷6.0=68% of cap; about 39% of offers submitted.
4. Seoul Economic Daily · U.S. yields surge; Korea’s 3Y KTB breaks above 4.1% 2026.09.28 · 3Y KTB 4.119% (+11.3bp, highest since Nov 8, 2022) · 5Y 4.345% (+12.5bp) · 10Y 4.539% (+14.7bp) · USD/KRW 1,365.1 at 15:30 KST (+7.6 won) · Foreign investors net sold roughly KRW 3tn in the KOSPI cash market / Special Times · KTB 3Y reaches 4.119% after U.S. Treasury yield surge 2026.09.28 · 1Y KTB 3.726% (+5.9bp) · Foreign investors net sold 18,016 3Y KTB futures contracts and 11,982 10Y contracts · Yield changes are versus the prior trading day, Sep 23.
5. Daum/Yonhap-affiliated coverage · Chuseok stock-market holiday and reopening schedule 2026.09.24 · Market closed Sep 24-25 and reopened Sep 28 · Closed Monday Oct 5 for the substitute National Foundation Day holiday · Closed Friday Oct 9 for Hangul Day.
6. Financial News · BOK reviews markets after Chuseok holiday 2026.09.28 · Market-monitoring meeting chaired by Deputy Governor Kwon Min-soo · During the holiday, U.S. Treasury 2Y +10bp and 10Y +20bp; German 10Y +14bp; U.K. 10Y +13bp · The BOK called for heightened vigilance over possible volatility in Korea’s financial and FX markets from external risks including U.S.-Iran talks, fiscal concerns in major economies and changing expectations around the AI sector.
7. Hana Securities, Overseas Bonds · “Holiday Rise in U.S. Treasury Yields Led by Real Yields,” 2026.09.28 · Over the three holiday sessions (Sep 23-25), cumulative 10Y move +20bp · Decomposition cited as TIPS +20bp and expected inflation +2bp; because the parts do not sum to the stated total, the comparison window or series may differ · October hike odds below 10% a month earlier → 64% (data as of Sep 27) · 5Y auction tail 3.1bp, cited as the second-largest on record · Interprets the buyback shortfall as exposing limits to a “Bessent put” · France 10Y 4.69% · Maintains a reduced allocation view on U.S. Treasuries · Data through Sep 27.
8. S&P Global · Flash US PMI, September 2026 2026.09.23 · Flash Composite Output Index: 56.0 in August → 58.4 in September, “the fastest expansion since July 2021” · “Firms’ input costs have meanwhile jumped in September at the steepest rate for four years” · Chris Williamson: “companies are developing more pricing power, and hence is a worry for the inflation outlook.”
9. Eugene Investment & Securities, Bond Weekly, 2026.09.28 · During the holiday, 10Y exceeded 5.2% and 30Y exceeded 5.5% · S&P Global Composite PMI at a 62-month high with sharp rises in new orders and price indexes · Sep 24 buyback of 20Y-30Y residual maturities capped at USD 6bn; USD 4.078bn accepted · Next buyback Oct 1 in the 10Y-20Y bucket · Cites CME FedWatch screen as of Sep 26: 4.00%-4.25% at 64.2%; 3.75%-4.00% at 35.8%.
10. Federal Reserve Board · Governor Michael S. Barr, A Long-Term View on the Costs of Shelter 2026.09.23 (Chicago Fed event) · “Economic growth is strong and the labor market is solid, but inflation is above our 2 percent target and not clearly trending toward target in a timely way.” · “In my base case, further policy adjustments are likely to be needed to ensure inflation comes down to target in a timely fashion.”
11. investingLive · US treasury sells $70 billion of 5 year notes at a high yield of 5.033% 2026.09.23 · When-issued yield before auction 5.002% · Tail 3.1bp (prior six-auction average 0.6bp) · Bid-to-cover 2.21x (avg. 2.33x) · Indirect allotment 54.31% (avg. 65.2%) · Direct 29.92% · Dealers 15.77%.
12. iM Securities Credit, “The Exit Speed of Short-Duration Bond Holdings,” 2026.09.28 · U.S. 10Y intraday 5.22% on Sep 24, highest since June 2007 · 7Y auction high yield 5.085%, tail +0.7bp · Roughly USD 10.47bn offered in the 20Y-30Y buyback, USD 4.08bn purchased · Korean 91-day CP yield rose about 10bp ahead of quarter-end · 91-day CD yield rose about 7bp roughly one week earlier, before the holiday.
13. Yahoo Finance · October Fed rate hike hinges on two looming economic reports 2026.09.28 19:28 ET · CME FedWatch put the probability of a 25bp hike at the Oct 28 meeting at 72.5% · The 10Y Treasury posted its highest close since July 2007 · Fed Governor Cook’s Sep 28 remarks cited inflation pressure from the “AI buildout,” pass-through from oil prices and supply-chain disruptions · September payroll consensus +100,000, unemployment rate 4.2% · August PCE consensus +0.4% m/m, core +0.3%.
14. U.S. Department of the Treasury · Treasury Announces Increased Sizes of Nominal Long-End Liquidity Support Buybacks Beginning September 9 2026.08.19 · Raised the maximum size of each liquidity-support buyback in the 10Y-20Y and 20Y-30Y sectors from USD 2bn to “at least $4 billion per operation” · Effective Sep 9-Nov 4 · Stated objective: “Treasury’s desire to provide greater liquidity support in longer-dated nominal sectors”.
15. TreasuryDirect · Buyback FAQs · Treasury may buy back less than the per-operation maximum · Offers are evaluated by their proximity to prevailing market prices at the close of the operation and by relative value · Results are reported on a par-amount basis / See also the Office of Debt Management, supplemental buyback materials from the Q3 2024 refunding.
16. U.S. Department of the Treasury · Tentative Schedule of Treasury Buyback Operations · Sep 24: Liquidity Support Nominal Coupons 20Y to 30Y · Oct 1: 10Y to 20Y · Each with a maximum of “= or > $4 billion” par.
17. Economic Research Institute, Bank of Korea · BOK Economic Research No. 2026-15, “An Analysis of Korea-U.S. Long-Term Interest Rate Comovement” Posted 2026.09.20 (Yoon Jae-ho · Kim Do-wan · Lee Hyung-seok) · Official summary: global inflation shocks are the most important factor explaining comovement; external shocks transmit mainly through expectations for future monetary policy rather than risk compensation · Press reports cross-check the detailed contribution figure (global inflation 41.0%) and the finding that the risk-compensation channel contributes negatively in three of four shocks: NewsPim · E-Focus.
18. iM Securities, “Monthly Bond Flow Review,” 2026.09.28 · September through Sep 23: change in holdings after redemptions across five investor groups −KRW 2.59tn (August +KRW 7.93tn; September redemptions KRW 36.55tn) · Foreigners net sold KRW 0.29tn of KTBs in September; after KRW 5.10tn of Sep 10 redemptions, foreign holdings fell KRW 5.40tn · Residual maturity measured at time of trade · Foreign net purchases of 5Y+ KTBs: August +KRW 3.87tn → September −KRW 0.16tn · 10Y+ (10Y-20Y plus >20Y, included within 5Y+): +KRW 2.14tn → −KRW 1.12tn · 1Y-5Y: −KRW 0.09tn → +KRW 1.55tn · Banks plus insurers/pension funds net bought KRW 4.28tn of >20Y KTBs in September · Banks, insurers and pension funds all net sold KTBs over Sep 16-23 · October does not face the same KTB redemption burden as September.
19. Hanwha Investment & Securities, “FI Monthly · 5%, the New Era,” 2026.09.28 · Average daily net KTB purchases in September were KRW 483.2bn, extending the market-wide streak to 22 months · Foreign investors turned net sellers for the first time in 22 months, at a daily average of −KRW 17.2bn · Pension funds and mutual-aid associations were net sellers for a fifth straight month (−KRW 50.3bn) · October calendar, KST: Oct 5 Korean substitute holiday, Oct 9 Hangul Day, Oct 12 U.S. Columbus Day closure for bonds and FX.
20. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics · Schedule of Selected Releases, October 2026 · Employment Situation for September: Fri Oct 2, 08:30 ET · September CPI: Wed Oct 14, 08:30 ET · Converted to 21:30 KST using EDT (UTC−4).
21. SIFMA · Holiday Schedule · Columbus Day, Monday Oct 12, is included among SIFMA’s recommended U.S. bond-market full closures for 2026.
22. U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis · Release Schedule · Sep 30, 08:30 ET: Q2 GDP third estimate, industry, corporate profits and state statistics, plus the August Personal Income and Outlays release · Annual-update information states that annual revisions begin the same day / See Snowshagal INVESTMENT NOTE NO.05 (2026.09.24) for the related checklist.
23. Bank of Korea · Monetary Policy Board meeting schedule and materials · Eight rate-setting meetings in 2026 (Jan, Feb, Apr, May, Jul, Aug, Oct, Nov) · Next meeting: Thu Oct 22.
24. Federal Reserve Board · FOMC Calendars, Statements, and Minutes · Eight scheduled meetings in 2026 · Oct 27-28 (no SEP) · Dec 8-9 (SEP released) · SEP meetings in 2026: March, June, September and December.
25. Daishin Securities, “Long Yields and the Won: Still Bearable,” cover note, 2026.09.28 · Argues that the relative mix of term premium, growth and monetary-policy expectations differs from October 2023 · U.S. Q2 nominal growth +6.5% · Long-run average for long-bond yields 4%-5% · The original note does not specify whether the Q2 nominal-growth figure is year-over-year or annualized quarter-over-quarter.
26. Hanwha Investment & Securities, “Supply and Demand in the Era of 5% U.S. Treasuries,” 2026.09.28 · Corporate bond issuance by five hyperscalers plus Nvidia totals USD 187.1bn YTD 2026 on a Dallas Fed 10Y-equivalent methodology, about 52% of U.S. 10Y Treasury issuance over the same period · Fiscal deficit/GDP 5.8%-6.3% in 2023-2025 · Currency-hedged U.S. 10Y yield for yen-based investors about 2.00% · Hedged U.S. 10Y minus domestic 10Y spread: yen −98bp · sterling −43bp · euro +6bp.
27. iM Securities, “Bond Brief · Even as Employment Cools, Rates May Not Cool Easily,” 2026.09.29 · September forecast: private payrolls around +100,000 (+80,000 to +120,000) · Unemployment rate seen holding at 4.1% · Next Fed hike expected in December · Sep 28 U.S. 10Y 5.24%, 2Y 4.92% (Figure 5).
2026.09.29 · Snowshagal INVESTMENT NOTE NO.06snowshagal.com